November 28, 2005

POLLARA Federal Vote Intent

Fielded: November 21st to November 27th
2355 interviews, Accurate to 2.0%, 19 times out of 20
1597 respondents are very likely to vote, Accurate to 2.5%, 19 times out of 20
1199 respondents have provided us with their decided vote intent, Accurate to 2.8%, 19 times out of 20


If a federal election were held today, how likely would you be to vote? Would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, not at all likely?

(ONLY THOSE THAT ARE VERY LIKELY TO VOTE) If a federal election were held today, which party would you most likely vote for? (READ and ROTATE)
Liberal Party - Paul Martin
Conservative Party- Stephen Harper
NDP - Jack Layton
(Quebec Only) Bloc Québecois - Gilles Duceppe


(POLLARA Context and Analysis After Tables)

Federal Vote Intent Decided with Undecided from Solid and Leaning


Region

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided
N=1199
%
%
%
%
%
Total
36
31
16
14
17
Region
Atlantic
52
30
16
 
19
Québec
29
4
5
60
14
Ontario
42
38
17
 
19
Prairies
29
52
15
 
15
BC
30
31
34
 
18
Toronto CMA
48
37
14
 
18
Rest of Ontario
39
38
19
 
20



Gender

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided
N=1199
%
%
%
%
%
Total
36
31
16
14
17
Gender
Male
35
34
14
13 
14
Female
36
26
18
16
20



Age

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided
N=1199
%
%
%
%
%
Total
36
31
16
14
17
Age
18-24
32
23
26
19
11
25-34
31
30
18
18
13
35-44
31
32
16
19
20
45-54
40
25
14
18
18
55-64
36
30
15
12
16
65+
41
40
15
2
18



Context and Analysis:

Contact:
Michael Marzolini
Chairman & CEO
POLLARA Strategic Public Opinion & Market Research
www.pollara.ca
(416) 921-0090 x-2200 (office)