December 19, 2005

POLLARA Federal Vote Intent

Fielded: December 17th and 18th
1208 interviews conducted, Accurate to +/- 2.8%, 19 times out of 20
66% of respondents are very likely to vote
708 respondents have provided us with their potential vote intent, accurate to +/- 3.7%, 19 times out of 20



Federal Vote Intent



If a federal election were held today, how likely would you be to vote? Would you be very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, not at all likely?

(ONLY THOSE THAT ARE VERY LIKELY TO VOTE) If a federal election were held today, which party would you most likely vote for? (READ and ROTATE)
Liberal Party - Paul Martin
Conservative Party- Stephen Harper
NDP - Jack Layton
(Quebec Only) Bloc Québecois - Gilles Duceppe




Region

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided*
Sample
631
631
631
631
708
 
%
%
%
%
%
Total
37
34
17
10
11
Atlantic
38
40
21
 
12
Québec
27
11
7
55
12
Ontario
47
34
16
 
11
Prairies
22
58
14
 
15
Alberta
19
66
11
 
9
BC/Territories
44
23
32
 
7



Urban/Rural

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided*
Sample
631
631
631
631
708
 
%
%
%
%
%
Total
37
34
17
10
11
Urban
38
32
17
10
11
Rural
29
41
14
11
10



Gender

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided*
Sample
631
631
631
631
708
 
%
%
%
%
%
Total
37
34
17
10
11
Gender
 
 
 
 
Male
31
39
15
12
9
Female
42
28
19
8
13



Age

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided
Sample
631
631
631
631
708
 
%
%
%
%
%
Total
37
34
17
10
11
Age
 
 
 
 
  
18-24
15
19
38
23
10
25-34
37
33
18
9
5
35-44
35
38
14
10
13
45-54
36
35
13
10
8
55-64
36
28
20
13
12
65+
44
38
24
4
14

Note: *undecided numbers come from vote intent potential
Reactions to the Debate



Did you watch the televised debates between the leaders of the federal political parties?

(IF WATCHED THE DEBATES) Who do you think won the debates?




Vote Intent

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided*
N=396
%
%
%
%
%
Total
22
13
8
14
23
Liberal
49
2
7
 4
19
CPC
40
40
4
9
20
NDP
16
11
29
 8
16
Bloc Quebecois
 
3
 
 68
16

Region

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided*
N=396
%
%
%
%
%
Total
22
13
8
14
23
Atlantic
22
17
10
 7
14
Québec
17
2
 
34
24
Ontario
23
14
11
 6
23
Prairies
17
31
9
 9
22
Alberta
28
20
8
 8
22
BC/Territories
26
18
13
8
22





Gender

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided*
N=396
%
%
%
%
%
Total
22
13
8
14
23
Gender
 
 
 
 
 
Male
21
16
8
13
26
Female
23
10
9
15
19



Age

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
Undecided
N=396
%
%
%
%
%
Total
22
13
8
14
23
Age
18-34
29
11
9
11
20
35-54
21
15
7
15
21
55+
21
13
8
14
25




Based on what you saw, read or heard about the leaders' debates, did you change your mind regarding whom you plan to vote for on January 23rd?

(IF CHANGED MIND) Thinking back to before the leaders' debates ,which federal political party were you planning on voting for in the January 23rd election?




Planned to Vote for Before the Debate

Liberal Party
~
Paul Martin
Conservative Party
~
Stephen Harper
NDP
~
Jack Layton
Bloc Québecois
~
Gilles Duceppe
N=33
%
%
%
%
Total
33
21
15
12
Planned Vote Intent Before Debates        
Liberal
23
23
44
 
CPC
16
50
17
17
NDP
25
50
25
 
Bloc Quebecois
 
 
 
100



Comment and Analysis


The key points of this poll are as follows:
  1. The Liberal lead has narrowed, from 7 pts to 3 pts.
  2. The Conservatives have increased their support - but inefficiently - mainly increasing their plurality in Alberta, where these votes will not impact on seat totals.
  3. The Conservatives are now "competitive" with the Liberals in Atlantic Canada - though we cannot say for sure whether they actually are ahead - due to the small sample size inherent in the region for n=1200 surveys.
  4. Election debates in Canada usually act as clarion-calls for the public to pay attention to the campaign and to start judging the candidates. The latest series of debates has not served this purpose - only one-third of voters saw any of the debates - half of what they normally report. And it has impacted on the vote of only 33 out of 1208 people. Canadians are doing their political shopping late this year - we don't expect any major attention increase until January 2nd when more than half of the public will start paying a lot of attention.
  5. The electorate has rarely been so polarized as in this election. If only rural Canadians were voting, we would have a Majority Conservative Government. If only urban Canadians were voting, we would have a Minority Liberal Government. Women would elect a Liberal Majority, while men would select a Conservative Minority. Young Canadians, 18-24, would easily elect an NDP majority, and of course, in Quebec.
  6. The electorate is still half-attracted and half-repelled, by each of the Liberal and Conservative parties and their leaders. Canadians are on a knife-edge, and very likely to move very quickly in either direction in "pendulum mode". We can expect that policies and statements made in these opening weeks will begin to have traction for either party in January, and this will lead to great volatility. It is still anybody's game.


Contact:
Michael Marzolini
Chairman & CEO
POLLARA Strategic Public Opinion & Market Research
www.pollara.ca
(416) 921-0090 x-2200 (office)